Bernal Heights Real Estate

topic posted Fri, April 6, 2007 - 2:53 PM by  Michael Sundius
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I posted monthly real estate statistics for Bernal Heights on my website and the display case out side of Brown Bear Realty yesterday You can check it out if you care:

www.sundius.com/brownbear/..._Review.jpg

I made some comments regarding same on my blog at:

brownbearrealty.blogspot.com

I hope they are useful and/or interesting to any of you :]
posted by:
Michael Sundius
SF Bay Area
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  • Re: Bernal Heights Real Estate

    Fri, April 6, 2007 - 2:58 PM
    uh... sorry

    that's

    www.sundius.com/brownbear/..._Review.jpg

    sorry
    • Re: Bernal Heights Real Estate

      Tue, April 10, 2007 - 12:10 AM
      this is so depressing! how is a single income person on a nonprofit salary supposed to afford housing!
      • Re: Bernal Heights Real Estate

        Tue, April 10, 2007 - 8:01 PM
        Right.. Carol Lloyd (who writes for the Chronicle's RE section) has had a couple of articles in recent months on this topic, I recommend you look through the archives. I really sympathize with you because many of my clients can't afford homes either. I guess I have 3 thoughts for you with regard to your question.

        1) Vote for home ownership, not for tenants rights
        2) If you Beg, Borrow, Steal, do tons of research, and work your ass off and you' CAN do it (well, maybe don't steal but do all the others).
        3) My first property was not one that I lived in. It was a rental property not in SF. If it was not for that property, I'd have had a helluva time affording my current home. (that you CAN do too)

        Mike
        • Re: Bernal Heights Real Estate

          Wed, April 11, 2007 - 2:02 PM
          No. 3 is a good one.

          My first place I bought was a condo in SOMA. I bought when the market was cold, and banks were throwing the low-interest loans at prospective buyers.

          After several years, it had appreciated, and I was able to use to proceeds from that sale to afford a house in Bernal.

          I don't know if that strategy would work in today's market, but Michael's overall advice is good: If home ownership in a desirable area like Bernal is your a goal, you may have to get creative and take some intermediary steps before that happens.
          • Re: Bernal Heights Real Estate

            Wed, April 11, 2007 - 2:09 PM
            the real estate market is scary.... just like a rollercoaster ;)

            check it out -
            youtube.com/watch

            ps- what happens after a roller coaster goes up, up, up, UP UP UP? THAT'S the scary part for me...
            • Re: Bernal Heights Real Estate

              Thu, April 12, 2007 - 12:08 AM
              <ps- what happens after a roller coaster goes up, up, up, UP UP UP? THAT'S the scary part for me... >

              It does DOWN DOWN DOWN! Many people who post here probably weren't here in the late 1980s, but I'll tell you that we saw 20% declines in real estate prices and homes that weren't moving at all. That recession lasted from about 1988 until the birth of the dot-com era in 1995. It was scary, actually.
      • Re: Bernal Heights Real Estate

        Wed, April 11, 2007 - 2:21 PM
        you're not...
        life is not fair... and it never promised to be so...
        • Re: Bernal Heights Real Estate

          Thu, April 12, 2007 - 12:14 AM
          <you're not...
          life is not fair... and it never promised to be so... >

          Not only that, but home ownership is one of those real estate sales gimmicks. My mom grew up in a 3-generation household in Alameda. This was typical. The idea that a couple in their 20s or 30s moved out and bought their own homes only really came into practice after World War II and the availability of cheap G.I. Bill loans at impossibly low interest rates (which nearly bankrupted the country in the 1970s by the way).

          Real estate sales people keep selling the myth of the "American dream", but for many it's a nightmare, being forced into a situation where you don't dare leave your job or breathe too heavily lest your house of cards comes crashing down on you. I've owned a couple homes. I'm not sure I want to own again. As a renter I'm free to move on if I wish, move to something pricier if I wish, or cheaper if I need to. Being a renter has incredible flexibility. I go to sleep at night not worrying about my job, my finances, loans, or any of that. I sleep well.
          • Re: Bernal Heights Real Estate

            Thu, April 12, 2007 - 10:38 AM
            David,

            Actually, in you have a point. Home ownership is a liability, plain and simple. Of course, so is your rent payment. The big question is what is the cost-benefit of owning vs renting? Financially speaking, anywhere except SF and a few other localities where tenants rights are as strong as they are here, I'd say that owning is hands down the winner.

            Even here, though, I'll tell you a story: a guy came into my office yesterday and was asking about buying into a starter home or condo. He'd just gotten paid $40k to move out of his apartment of 10+ years and he still could not afford to buy even a TIC that would be big enough for he and his wife and daughter. Its sad but true. I mentioned to him that the years of subsidized rent and that big payout at the end were a major factor in the fact that he was unable to afford to buy a home, and that if he'd bought a home when he got to SF 20 years ago, he might have got a $400k payout instead of just $40k. (I still believe he can do it mind you, but it'll be harder now than 20 years ago when he didn't have a 6year old to feed).

            When you look at the numbers over the course of 10 years or more its still heavily in favor of owning. But, I think a dedication to a place and a purpose over a long time is the real gem of wisdom. Just moving whenever the wind blows in the name of "flexibility" is probably not the wisest financial plan for a owner or renter. Especially, in SF where renters are penalized so harshly when they move (or when they first move here) because their long time neighbor's rent is so heavily restricted.

            I always advise my home buyer clients that they should only buy a home if 1) you want to live there and 2) if you can afford it. Not because its an investment. By the way it can be a better alternative to renting, but its a liability, not an investment. The worry about being able to leave their job and the house of cards is independent of owning or renting, it more has to do with lifestyle and financial choices than to do with owning or renting. (i.e. live within your means).

            I'll also comment on the replies of Weazie and Emily's replies. It doesn't matter in the short run what an income property is worth. What matters is that the tenants pay the mortgage/expenses until its worth more than you bought it for. Everyone is always fixated on price when they should be more worried about cash-flow. If you always take care of the cash-flow, inflation will take care of the price. Nice work Weazie ;]

            Mike
          • Re: Bernal Heights Real Estate

            Thu, April 12, 2007 - 3:30 PM
            David's right that home ownership does cost in terms of flexibility, and for some that is very important. In addition to not being able to move, you can't do "crazy" things like quit your job and backpack around the world, if you worried about that monthly mortgage. (And not that I advocate such things, skipping town on a broken lease is a lot less costly.)

            Lots of real-estate and bank web sites have "Rent versus Buy" calculators, so you can project how much over the long run each will cost (factoring in such things are rent versus mortgage, interest rate of the loan, tax bracket (mortgage interest is deductable, and at the beginning of your mortgage, that's almost all of what you are paying), etc.). And mortgage payments never increase, whereas rent always does, so over time, it becomes "cheaper" to own.

            In my case, renting was comprable to mortgage payments, *and* they were deductible, so it was actually cheaper a yearly basis to buy. Again, the market is probably different now.
            • Unsu...
               

              Re: Bernal Heights Real Estate

              Sun, April 15, 2007 - 8:19 AM
              NYT recently published one of those calculators:
              www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10...RAPHIC.html

              For me to get into a $500,000 (which is on the low end) bay area house, it would take 16 years before it became more cost effective than renting. 29 years for a median $600,000.
              • Re: Bernal Heights Real Estate

                Mon, April 16, 2007 - 1:34 AM
                Fascinating calculator. I'm assuming a 2-bedroom detached home, so I put in $3000 for rent and $750,000 for home price. The rent is probably a bit high, but the sale price is probably optimistic. The calculator says it would take 22 years before it's cost effective! Amazing!
                • Re: Bernal Heights Real Estate

                  Wed, April 18, 2007 - 4:51 PM
                  hmmmm. that is pretty interesting.

                  It took some doing, (adjusting the interest rate and inflation rates) but I got your same 22 year number (21 for break even) with 0% financing at 8.25% and assuming that both rent and home values increase at the same rate: 4%.

                  David you might have used slightly different numbers but generally I'm guessing its close.

                  So, I did a little experimenting with the variables (I was an engineer in my former life so I have to :]

                  If you vary the inflation rate, (both rental and home prices) then anything less than 4% per year, you will find that you never break even and renting is always the best choice. At 4% and above you break even as show below

                  4% 21 years
                  5% 9 years
                  6% 5 years
                  7% 3 years
                  8% 2 years
                  9% 2 years
                  10% 1 year.

                  no doubt why people have been flipping properties so quickly in the last several years.

                  I don't have the exact data in front of me but I think property values over the course of recent history (say the last 30 years) have increased more than 4%, Though, I also don't know what rents for single family homes have done in that same time.

                  Anyone out there wanna bet the inflation rate will be less than 4% here in SF over the next 22 years? (not me).

                  • This is the maximum depth. Additional responses will not be threaded.

                    Re: Bernal Heights Real Estate

                    Thu, April 19, 2007 - 2:49 PM
                    Too many realators going out and pimping homes to the wealthy.

                    I hated seeing a real estate office on Courtland Ave.
                    YUK.

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